Fragmentation, not as a replacement for the dollar system but rather as the gradual loss of its universality, means a new operating environment for an expanding set of actors. The question is not whether to act, but how to act decisively without locking into mistakes or foreclosing the strategic options that fragmentation itself creates. The Survive-Thrive-Drive framework, applied here, follows a logic similar to Roberts’ Risk-Reward-Resilience model but adapts it sequentially for actors whose exposure to fragmentation is immediate.
Banks
Surviving requires acting on the lesson of 2022: the forced exit from Russian correspondent relationships demonstrated what reactive de-risking costs without preparation. The challenge lies in markets such as India and the Gulf, where significant trade exposure meets the expansion of alternative payment systems, such as UPI and AFAQ. Banks should audit those relationships and stress-test their dollar-clearing dependencies now, so as to respond deliberately rather than reactively.